Risk sentiment on hold ahead of the US NFP
USD/JPY=> The pair falls to 135.00
BTC/USD =>The cryptocurrency falls below 17k
USD/CAD=> The holds steady below 1.3450
USD looks to jobs data
USD/JPY fell to its lowest level since mid-August as the USD extended its selloff post-Powell, after mixed data. While Us jobless claims were stronger than expected in an encouraging sign for the labour market, the manufacturing PMI was below forecasts raising concerns over a recession in the US, which would rein in the need to rate hikes. Today, all eyes are on the non-farm payroll, which is expected to show that 200k jobs were added in November, up from 261k in October. The unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 3.7%, while average hourly earnings are set to ease slightly to 4.6% from 4.7%. A weak report could send the USD lower.
Where might the USD/JPY price head to?
USD/JPY has broken below a 5-month rising trendline and is heading toward support at the 200 sma. The RSI is in overbought territory so sellers should be cautious. A break below the 200sma would be significant as it would be the first move below the support since February 2021. A move below here brings 130.00 round number into target. Should buyers defend the 200 sma at 134.50, a rise above 13745 is needed to extend the recovery towards 140.00 round number.
BTC/USD slips as contagion risks linger
BTC/USD trades marginally lower after three days of gains. The price is hovering around 17000. The slight pullback in the price reflects caution, which has been building within the industry. While the macro backdrop with the Fed scaling back its hawkish monetary policy has supported risk assets such as Bitcoin, concerns about contagion within the sector after FTX’s collapse linger. Concerns are rising that Tether loans could be the next big risk for the industry as the company behind tether stablecoin has been increasingly lending its own coin to customers rather than selling them, raising worries that the company may not have enough liquid assets to pay out in a crisis.
USD/CAD steadies ahead of US & CAD labour market data
USD/CAD is holding steady as investors look ahead to jobs data from both the US and Canada. After an incredibly strong October labor report, data is expected to be less dramatic in November. While 108.3k jobs were added in October, just 5k are expected in November. Moreover, unemployment is expected to rise to 5.3%, up from 5.2%. The data comes ahead of next week’s BoC interest rate decision. While inflation is cooling, a strong labour market could keep pressure on the BoC to raise rates more aggressively. Separately, oil prices have supported the loonie this week as Canada’s largest export has risen around 7%.
Support 1.34 (round number) and 1.3310 (last week’s low).
Resistance could be seen at 1.3570 (50 sma) and 1.3640 (weekly high).